PUBLISHED (OR FORTHCOMING)
Climate Change, Humidity, and Mortality in the United States
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (Vol 63, No 1, pp. 19-34, Jan 2012)
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This paper estimates the effects of humidity and temperature on mortality rates in the United States (c. 1973-2002) in order to provide insight into the potential health impacts of climate change. I find that humidity, like temperature, is an important determinant of mortality. Coupled with Hadley CM3 climate-change predictions, I project that mortality rates are likely to change little on the aggregate for the United States. However, distributional impacts matter: mortality rates are likely to decline in cold and dry areas, but increase in hot and humid areas. Further, accounting for humidity has important implications for evaluating these distributional effects.
Saving Babies? Revisiting the Effect of Very Low Birth Weight Classification
Joint with Melanie Guldi, Jason Lindo, and Glen R. Waddell
Quarterly Journal of Economics (Vol 126, No 4, pp. 2117-2123, Nov 2011).
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We reconsider the effect of very low birth weight classification on infant mortality. We demonstrate that the estimates are highly sensitive to the exclusion of observations in the immediate vicinity of the 1500-gram threshold, weakening the confidence in the results originally reported in Almond, Doyle, Kowalski, and Williams (2010).
The Long-Term Economic Impact of In Utero and Postnatal Exposure to Malaria
Journal of Human Resources (Vol 45, No 4, pp. 865-892, Fall 2010).
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I use an instrumental-variables identification strategy and historical data from the United States to estimate the long-term economic impact of in utero and postnatal exposure to malaria. My research design matches adults in the 1960 Decennial Census to the malaria death rate in their respective state and year of birth. To address potential omitted-variables bias and measurement-error bias, I use variation in "malaria-ideal" temperatures to instrument for malaria exposure. My estimates indicate that in utero and postnatal exposure to malaria led to considerably lower levels of educational attainment and higher rates of poverty later in life.
WORKING PAPERS
Heaping-Induced Bias in Regression-Discontinuity Designs
Joint with Jason Lindo, and Glen R. Waddell
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This study uses Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate that regression-discontinuity designs arrive at biased estimates when attributes related to outcomes predict heaping in the running variable. After showing that our usual diagnostics are poorly suited to identifying this type of problem, we provide alternatives. We also demonstrate how the magnitude and direction of the bias varies with bandwidth choice and the location of the data heaps relative to the treatment threshold. Finally, we discuss approaches to correcting for this type of problem before considering these issues in several non-simulated environments.
Agricultural Policy, Migration, and Malaria in the 1930s United States
(Previously circulated with the title "The Impact of Migration on Malaria Deaths in the Early 20th Century United States)
Joint with Price Fishback and Shawn Kantor
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The Agricultural Adjustment Act (AAA) caused a population shift in the United States in the 1930s. Evaluating the effects of the AAA on the incidence of malaria can therefore offer important lessons regarding the broader consequences of demographic changes. Using a quasi-first difference model and a robust set of controls, we find a negative association between AAA expenditures and malaria death rates at the county level. Further, we find the AAA caused relatively low-income groups to migrate from counties with high-risk malaria ecologies. These results suggest that the AAA-induced migration played an important role in the reduction of malaria.